The following analysis of the 2012 New Hampshire primary is from New Hampshire Young Democrats Vice President Doug Lindner:

The combined number of young people voting for all the Republicans in Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary just barely exceeded the number of young people who voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 New Hampshire Primary—when he lost to Hillary Clinton.  Obama received more votes overall when he came in second four years ago than Romney did coming in first this year.

That’s because what happened yesterday was not a victory for Mitt Romney; it was a defeat for the Republican field.

Romney took our state for granted because he consistently polled first, while polling behind a succession of other Republicans in Iowa and South Carolina.  In fact, he only had one campaign office here—unheard of!  But that doesn’t mean Romney has strong support in the Granite State.  It just reflects the weakness of his rivals.

For the third competitive cycle in a row, the social conservative in the race has gotten major momentum from the Iowa Republican Caucus, only to be decisively rejected in the New Hampshire Republican Primary.  After winning the 2000 Iowa Caucus, George W. Bush lost the New Hampshire Primary by double digits.  Five days after winning the 2008 Iowa Caucus, Mike Huckabee came in third in New Hampshire, with a mere 11% of the vote.  The winner that year, John McCain, more than tripled Huckabee’s vote in the Granite State.

This year, Rick Santorum won (at least in perception) the Iowa Caucus, and a week later, he came in fifth, with 9.4% of the New Hampshire Primary vote.  He got zero delegates.  Even Newt Gingrich—a candidate who is said to have stayed in the race after Iowa solely to help Santorum attack Romney in debates—narrowly beat Santorum here.

The fact is that, like young people nationwide, New Hampshire voters are not looking for a socially conservative President.  Culture warriors should not expect to win primaries in a place where gay marriage is popular and the Democratic Governor who signed it into law was re-elected in the Republican wave of 2010.

This is not to say that New Hampshire Republicans are a generally moderate bunch.  Many times since Republicans retook the (huge, part-time) legislature in 2010, our state has repeatedly made national news for their embarrassing statements and proposals. (Search recent news for “Magna Carta” to see what I mean).  But conservative voters here care about taxes and spending (and yes, guns), not gays and school prayer.

Look at who came second and third on Tuesday: Ron Paul, a small government crusader, and Jon Huntsman, a moderate on social issues who understands foreign policy, believes the science on global warming (at least half the time), and served in the Obama administration.  Romney, Paul, and Huntsman were the only candidates who got more than 10% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary.  But of course, Ron Paul is out of step with his party on many issues, and Jon Huntsman worked for Obama, so each has a ceiling on potential Republican support.

The biggest loser in Tuesday’s primary was culture warrior Rick Perry.  America’s longest serving Governor, once by far the national front-runner, got less than 1%.  He barely beat Buddy Roemer, who has been shut out of every debate.  Perry lost so badly he got fewer votes statewide than did Gingrich in Manchester alone—and Gingrich came in fourth, with less than 10%!

This failure of the Republican field has implications beyond New Hampshire, with our four electoral votes, and beyond the Northeast, where Republicans expect to lose in November: their weakness in New Hampshire is their weakness in the millennial generation.